With the Bitcoin (BTC) halving less than 20 days abroad, some analysts predict that an arrival of capital will accompany the run-upwards to the result so reduced selling pressure at below-production prices thereafter will catalyze a bullish trend for BTC toll. Nevertheless, Bitcoin options data tells a unlike story. Let's take a closer look.

Options open interest on the rising

According to Skew, open up interest in BTC options contracts has been increasing since the kickoff of April with Deribit holding the majority of the market share. The total BTC options open interest is currently $623 million.

Open involvement has been increasing in regulated Bitcoin options equally well, with Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), Bakkt and LedgerX all showing increased open up interest in their Bitcoin options. For example, the CME is currently seeing $11 one thousand thousand in open involvement for options contracts, more than double the $v.i million figure at the commencement of April.

CME Bitcoin Options - Total Open Interest

CME Bitcoin Options - Total Open up Interest. Source: Skew

Rising institutional interest is further demonstrated past the recent Grayscale quarterly written report, which shows that the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) currently holds 1.seven% of the full Bitcoin supply. GBTC as well saw its best quarter yet in terms of majuscule inflows and this is despite the current marketplace turmoil. The report reads:

"Quarter-over-quarter inflows more doubled to $503.7 million, demonstrating demand is reaching new peak levels, even in a 'risk-off' environs."

Deribit controls 87% of BTC options open up interest

Although institutional interest is seemingly on the rise, unregulated exchanges still dominate the market, about noticeably when it comes to options.

Unregulated options business relationship for 92% of the open up interest on BTC options, with Deribit bookkeeping for 87% and Okex for 5%. Deribit currently has $542 million in open interest for Bitcoin options.

Meanwhile, LedgerX is currently the most popular regulated exchange for BTC options, with $35 one thousand thousand or a 6% market share.

BTC Options — Open Interest (Prev. day)

BTC Options — Open Involvement (Prev. day) Source: Skew

Bitcoin options products take been gaining traction as of late, with Binance recently launching BTC options trading on its futures platform. Deribit has seen a steady increase in volume, with March seeing an uptick of 11% to 319,922 BTC options contracts traded.

Put to Call ratio: a bearish scenario

While open interest has been increasing, the Put to Call ratio has been increasing alongside it, having risen from 0.46 to 0.62 in a one-calendar month menstruum.

The Put/Call ratio measures the number of put options versus call options. An increment in put options, which gives the holder the correct to sell BTC, is currently pointing to surly sentiment in the Bitcoin options market.

BTC Options — Put/Call Ratio

BTC Options — Put/Call Ratio. Source: Skew

With the Bitcoin halving imminent, the increase in the Put/Call ratio may besides suggest Bitcoin miners are hedging their bets against a possible drop in the Bitcoin price, a scenario recently observed with the Bitcoin Greenbacks (BCH) and Bitcoin SV (BSV) halvings.

PlanB's Stock to Flow (S2F) model estimates the value to be at 10x its electric current price in 1-2 years, a prediction that will be "make-or-interruption for S2F model", co-ordinate to its creator. Notwithstanding, marketplace sentiment observed through the BTC options market may suggest that the halving will not bring the BTC price rise that so many expect.

While the consensus on an increased put to call ratio normally points towards a bearish outlook, a completely different scenario can exist extracted from this metric. Bitcoin trader and popular YouTuber Tone Vays told Cointelegraph:

"I remember the majority of the people are wrong. A ascension put/call ratio should be bullish for BTC price every bit most of those puts will expire worthless. Puts are also a good hedging (aka insurance) instrument so people that are hodling bitcoin might be scared that mining will be in trouble and they are buying puts to protect their positions."